管涛：中国出口韧性从何而来｜立方大家谈

Core Viewpoint - Despite the challenges posed by Trump's tariff policies, China's export resilience has exceeded market expectations, with its global export share reaching a historical high of 14.2% in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with its share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to approximately 10% [3] - In response to tariff pressures, China has diversified its export markets, with exports to ASEAN and Africa growing by 14.3% and 26.1% respectively in the first ten months of the year [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - China's export product structure has improved, with high-tech industrial products accounting for 53.3% of exports in September, marking a historical high [5][7] - The export growth of high-tech products has contributed significantly to overall export growth, with a 9.0% increase in the first nine months of the year [5][7] - The competitiveness of Chinese products has been bolstered by a stable RCA index above 1 for various industrial products, indicating a strong comparative advantage [9][11] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, which are often processed in other countries before reaching final markets, raising concerns about the sustainability of this export model [13][15] - The decline in export prices due to domestic demand issues and increased competition has led to a trend of "trading at lower prices for volume," impacting overall export value [15] - The IMF has highlighted that the long-term support for China's export resilience from diversifying markets may be uncertain, as demand from major economies remains crucial [15][17]