油价跌跌不休，欧佩克+会减产救市吗？多数交易员并不指望

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a global oil supply surplus leading to further price declines, oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to cut production next year [2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Expectations - A survey of 25 brokers and analysts indicates that nearly two-thirds believe OPEC+ will not cut production next year, with less than one-third expecting any supply reductions [2] - Only 8 out of 25 respondents anticipate OPEC+ will limit output, while 12 expect no restrictions, suggesting that significant cuts are unlikely unless there is a drastic market downturn [3] - OPEC+ countries have already restored three-quarters of the 3.85 million barrels per day that were previously paused, ahead of schedule [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Pressure - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day, driven by weak demand and strong supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana [4] - Oil prices have dropped 14% this year to nearly $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia, which faces a growing budget deficit [5] - Some forecasting institutions, like Goldman Sachs and HSBC, estimate that next year's supply surplus will be smaller than the IEA's predictions [5] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - OPEC+ may be pausing further production increases as a precursor to a new reduction agreement, with the aim of preventing excessive inventory accumulation [4] - Analysts suggest that OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share lost to competitors, particularly U.S. shale producers, rather than prioritizing price support [3][5] - The potential for OPEC+ to cut production significantly may depend on geopolitical factors or drastic price drops, with some analysts believing that the alliance will not reduce output by 2026 [5]