中俄爆发利益之争？普京希望中国出个体面价格，这场博弈将如何？

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical and energy dynamics surrounding the construction of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which aims to transport natural gas from Russia to China, highlighting the shift in energy markets post the Ukraine conflict [1][3][6]. Group 1: Pipeline Overview - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is a strategic project for Russia, connecting the Yamal Peninsula gas fields to northern China, with a total length exceeding 2,600 kilometers and an annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, which is about one-third of Russia's previous exports to Europe [9][21]. - The pipeline's construction is seen as a means for Russia to break free from Western sanctions and stabilize its economy while providing China with a more diversified energy supply [6][22]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Russia's energy sector has faced unprecedented challenges since the Ukraine conflict, losing its dominant European market, which previously accounted for 70% of its gas exports [1][9]. - The construction cost of the pipeline exceeds $13 billion, and the ongoing negotiations between Russia and China focus on achieving a mutually acceptable pricing structure, with Russia seeking a "decent price" to compensate for lost European revenues [21][30]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The project involves not only Russia and China but also Mongolia, which plays a crucial role in balancing interests and ensuring its own economic benefits from transit fees and infrastructure improvements [19][30]. - The shift in energy flow from Russia to China signifies a major geopolitical realignment, with Europe needing to seek alternative energy sources, potentially increasing energy costs and affecting industrial competitiveness [19][26]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - The negotiations are characterized by differing economic philosophies, with Russia emphasizing strategic cooperation and China adhering to market principles, leading to a complex and prolonged bargaining process [23][30]. - Both countries are aware of their respective leverage in negotiations, with China no longer being in a position of urgent need for energy, thus enhancing its bargaining power [7][23].