【UNforex财经事件】市场等待数据复位 金价徘徊4100附近、美元暂获支撑

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating between $4080 and $4100, influenced by the resumption of the U.S. government and upcoming economic data releases, while U.S.-China rare earth negotiations show positive progress, stabilizing the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices are maintaining stability around $4087, showing less volatility compared to the previous week [1]. - The end of the government shutdown has not fully restored the statistical system, leading to uncertainty regarding the release of October employment and inflation data [1]. - Market expectations suggest that delayed data may reveal a slowdown in job growth and economic momentum, potentially supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have created upward pressure on gold prices, making it difficult for gold to break through resistance levels [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 54%, down from 62.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. - Upcoming speeches from Fed officials may further influence gold prices, with a hawkish tone likely to maintain pressure on gold [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data and Trade Relations - The current uncertainty in the data system leaves the market with a lack of clarity regarding the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving has led to a reassessment of trade conditions, slightly boosting the dollar index [2]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will heavily depend on the timing of data recovery and the guidance from Federal Reserve communications [3].