帮主郑重：比特币年内涨幅全蒸发，机会还是陷阱？

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping from a historical high of $126,000 in early October to below $93,700, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year and entering a "technical bear market" [1] Group 1: Reasons for the Decline - Institutional investors are withdrawing large amounts of capital, leading to a loss of core market support, with Bitcoin ETF inflows shifting from stable to net outflows [3] - Changes in the macroeconomic environment, including the impact of Trump's tariff policies and a cooling of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, have negatively affected risk assets, with Bitcoin being sold off as a high-risk asset [3] - A leveraged bubble has burst, resulting in 160,000 liquidations within 24 hours and a total liquidation amount of $580 million, exacerbating losses and triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs [3] - Long-term holders are accelerating their sell-off, with some early investors viewing $100,000 as a psychological profit-taking point, selling at a rate of over 1,000 BTC per hour [4] Group 2: Implications for Medium to Long-term Investors - Caution is advised for short-term investors as market sentiment is extremely pessimistic and institutional funds have not yet returned, suggesting a need to wait for stabilization signals before attempting to buy the dip [6] - The long-term investment thesis remains intact due to Bitcoin's scarcity and institutional demand, with potential buying opportunities if prices drop to key support levels (e.g., $60,000 to $65,000) [6] - Investors should be wary of high leverage traps, as the volatility in cryptocurrency markets can lead to significant losses; focusing on spot trading is recommended [7]