开源证券：社零数据增速环比继续回落 但部分消费环比改善较好

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a continued decline in the growth rate of social retail sales in October 2025, with expectations for more fiscal policies to support domestic demand and a recovery in consumer spending [1] Monthly Observation - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points from September [1] - The consumption structure showed marginal recovery in food, beverages, tobacco, and catering due to holiday spending, while the "trade-in" policy's diminishing effect and a high base from the previous year led to negative growth in appliances and automotive categories [1] - Catering and above-limit catering revenue increased by 3.8% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 2.9 percentage points and 5.3 percentage points from September, supported by holiday travel [1] - Sub-sectors such as grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco saw year-on-year increases of 9.1%, 7.1%, and 4.1%, respectively, with significant month-on-month improvements [1] Quarterly Observation - The growth rate of social retail sales is expected to continue declining in Q4 2025, although there may be marginal improvements in the growth rates of catering and food and beverage sectors [2] - In October 2025, the retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, primarily due to the weakening effect of subsidy policies and a high base from the previous year [2] - The growth rates for grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco in October 2025 improved compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in food and beverage consumption [2] Industry Observation - The liquor industry is still in a bottoming phase, with structural differentiation in consumption during the October holiday, showing recovery in mass banquets and family gatherings, while business consumption remains weak [3] - The snack industry demonstrates resilience due to its high-frequency demand, supported by holiday consumption, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through product innovation and channel expansion [3]