华西证券:首予古茗“买入”评级 高品质平价茶饮仍有翻倍以上的增长空间
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-17 07:05

Core Viewpoint - Company has established itself as a leading brand in the tea beverage industry through a high-quality price ratio product strategy, a regionally encrypted store network, and a self-built cold chain supply chain, resulting in a positive cycle of scale and efficiency [1] Market Size - Since its establishment, the company has focused on providing fresh, delicious, consistent, and affordable high-quality beverages, growing steadily over 15 years to become one of the top brands in the tea beverage industry; as of June 2025, the total number of stores nationwide is expected to reach 11,179, covering over 200 cities [1] - The company primarily operates through a franchise model, generating revenue mainly from selling goods and equipment to franchisees and providing services; in the first half of 2025, it achieved revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.086 billion yuan, up 42.4%, and an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] Competitive Barriers - The company differentiates itself from other tea beverage brands by employing a high-frequency product launch strategy and a regionally encrypted expansion strategy, along with a self-built cold chain logistics system to create supply chain barriers [2] - The dense store network resulting from the regional encryption strategy helps shorten transportation distances, reduce warehousing and logistics costs, and ensure high-frequency delivery of ingredients, achieving a "two-day delivery" service in the industry, fulfilling the brand's "freshness" promise; cost savings from improved supply chain efficiency can be directly converted into pricing advantages, supporting the brand's high-quality price ratio strategy and enhancing franchisee profitability, which in turn promotes further store growth and cost dilution [2] Future Outlook - Although the company, as a brand owner, does not directly participate in the revenue sharing of franchise stores, its revenue is closely related to the GMV of franchise stores, making the improvement of single-store sales and the increase in the number of stores the core drivers of the company's performance growth [3] - In the short term, single-store sales are expected to grow rapidly due to the external delivery competition; even if delivery subsidies slow down, the company can still support single-store sales through product and scenario expansion and brand enhancement [3] - Following a policy adjustment in February this year that boosted confidence among new franchisees, the pace of store openings has accelerated significantly; with continued regional encryption and penetration into untapped areas, the company is projected to have over 35,000 store openings in mainland China, indicating more than double the current growth potential [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.458 billion yuan, 15.677 billion yuan, and 18.434 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 41.7%, 25.8%, and 17.6%, respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.768 billion yuan, 2.888 billion yuan, and 3.450 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 87.3%, 4.3%, and 19.5% [4] - EPS is expected to be 1.16 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.45 yuan, with the latest stock price (closing price on November 14 at 22.3 HKD, exchange rate 1 HKD = 0.91 CNY) corresponding to PE ratios of 17.4, 16.7, and 14.0 times [4] - The company is given a "buy" rating for the first coverage [4]