新城控股投资研报：商业地产赋能下的估值修复机会

Company Overview - The company, New Town Holdings, has been established for 20 years and operates with a dual business model of residential development and commercial operations, which enhances its stability [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company has total assets of 280.67 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders of 61.87 billion yuan, with a high shareholding concentration of 67.20% [1] - The major shareholders have pledged shares, but the pledge ratios are within safe limits, ensuring stable control [1] Core Competitiveness - The commercial real estate segment, centered around "Wuyue Plaza," has opened over 150 locations with a stable occupancy rate of 97.81% [2] - The total revenue from commercial operations reached 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a gross profit margin of 71.20% [2] - The stable cash flow from commercial real estate mitigates the cyclical fluctuations of residential development, providing solid support for debt repayment [2] Industry Environment - Since 2025, the real estate industry has seen continuous policy easing, with central and local governments implementing measures to stabilize the market and improve financing conditions for private enterprises [4] - The market is experiencing a bifurcation, with core cities showing resilience while third and fourth-tier cities face pressure; sales in core cities saw a year-on-year decline of only 5.2% [5] - New Town Holdings has strategically acquired over 60% of its land reserves in core cities, positioning itself to capitalize on the industry's recovery [5] Financial Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.51%, primarily due to reduced project deliveries [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million yuan, down 42.09% year-on-year, but the commercial operations continue to grow, contributing over 70% of gross profit [3] - The debt structure has improved, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.00% and a net debt ratio of 52.44%, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Valuation and Stock Price Analysis - As of November 3, 2025, the company's stock price is 13.99 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 24.30 times and a PB of 0.40 times, significantly lower than the industry median [7] - The target price is set at 18.50 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 32.2% based on a 2026 PB of 0.68 times [7] - Analysts are optimistic about the stock's future performance, with 73.91% recommending a "strong buy" and a target price average of 18.49 yuan, suggesting a potential increase of 32.2% [8]