房地产 2026 年 01 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 29 日，证监会正式受理首批三只商业不动产 REITs，分别是汇添富上海地 产、中金唯品会以及华安锦江 REIT。 点评： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报，覆盖底层资产为办公楼、酒店和奥特莱斯。1 月 29 日，上交所公示首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报受理：1）汇添富上海地产 REIT，底层 资产为上海黄浦区鼎保大厦、鼎博大厦两个办公楼；预计募集规模 40.02 亿元、2026-27 年净现金流分派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of A-share listed real estate companies are expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Loss Predictions - Out of 52 listed real estate companies, 40 are expected to report losses for 2025, which means over 80% of these companies are projected to be in the red [1]. - Five companies are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Vanke leading at a projected loss of 820 billion yuan, followed by China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale [2][3]. - Vanke's cumulative losses for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be nearly 1,315 billion yuan, surpassing the total profits from 2019 to 2023 [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The losses are attributed to declining property prices and significant impairment provisions that companies have had to make over the past two years [9][10]. - Many companies had previously anticipated a market recovery and began to recognize inventory impairments, but the continued market downturn has forced them to increase these provisions [10]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Profits - Twelve companies are expected to report profits, with Jinke Real Estate projected to achieve a net profit of 300 billion to 350 billion yuan, primarily due to successful restructuring [12][13]. - Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are also expected to report profits, albeit with significant declines compared to 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The list of loss-making companies includes a mix of private, state-owned, and central enterprises, indicating that the nature of the company does not correlate with the likelihood of losses [7]. - State-owned platform companies, which previously supported land acquisitions, are now facing increased pressure due to the ongoing market decline [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming annual report season in March and April 2025 will provide more detailed insights into the operational conditions of these companies [25].

2026 年 01 月 30 日 "申万宏源十大金股组合 ー 2026 年第 2 期：2 月 1 日-2 月 28 日 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wanqxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 组合说明: O "金股组合"一方面体现申万宏源未来 1 个月的大势研判观点及风格判断结论，另一方面 体现我们申万宏源整体研究团队的研究能力与市场竞争力，在严格的申报筛选流程下，我 们从全行业的角度为投资者精选个股，力求为投资者提供踏实的研究支持。本次报告对上 期金股组合进行更新。 上期组合回顾: 本期策略判断: 本期金股组合： (具体推荐逻辑详见正文第 3 部分十大金股组合) 申万宏源研究微信服务 相关研究 证券分析师 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@sw ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 "申万宏源十大金股组合" —— 2026 年第 2 期：2 月 1 日-2 月 28 日 组合说明： ⚫ "金股组合"一方面体现申万宏源未来 1 个月的大势研判观点及风格判断结论，另一方面 体现我们申万宏源整体研究团队的研究能力与市场竞争力，在严格的申报筛选流程下，我 们从全行业的角度为投资者精选个股，力求为投资者提供踏实的研究支持。本次报告对上 期金股组合进行更新。 上期组合回顾： 略 研 究 本期策略判断： 本期金股组合：(具体推荐逻辑详见正文第 3 部分十大金股组合) 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 相关研究 - 证券分析师 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A023 ...

January 29, 2026 09:53 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Thoughts After Recent Rally We think the recent sentiment-driven outperformance of the China property industry (11%YTD vs. 7% for MSCI China) is likely unsustainable, given the fragile housing market and the sector's high valuation. We see multiple near-term headwinds leading to a potential sector pullback into results season. | M January 29, 2026 09:53 AM GMT | | Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | China Property Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limite ...

地产 "十五五"新启航：掘金地产，定位变革新纪元 20260129 当前中国房地产市场的主要驱动力是政策预期的明确和更强烈的改变。自 2025 年四中全会将"房地产高质量发展"写入十五五规划以来，政策预期已 经在隐约发生调整。今年 1 月 1 日，《求是》杂志进一步明确了关于房地产三 性问题的探讨，包括金融属性、居民财富以及宏观经济的重要属性和政策力度 性。这些因素推动了二级市场对地产问题和十五期间房地产定性的大胆猜想和 探讨。此外，证监会不动产 REITs 发行也对整个中国房地产行业价值构成强烈 冲击。 房地产板块在股票市场中的表现如何？ 房地产板块在股票市场中的表现与我们的预期基本一致。当前股价启动顺序通 常先于成交量，成交量先于房价，房价最后体现业绩。从去年四中全会开始到 关注受益于供给侧改革和高质量发展的公司（如蛇口、华润、保利、中 国海外、绿城、滨江新城等）以及受益于 REITs 政策的公司（如新城控 股），REITs 可改善其财务状况。 关注物业板块的分红和特别分红，CPI 上升至 1.5%左右将带来物业公司 价格稳定性和服务贸易提升的弹性，重点关注华润、保利物业、万物云、 碧桂园服务等。 摘要 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000573 | 粤宏远 A | 4.44 | -8.45% | 159.72万 | 7.19亿 | | 002208 | 合肥城建 | 13.97 | -5.10% | 62.29万 | 8.86亿 | | 000631 | 顺发恒能 | 4.09 | -4.66% | 71.88万 | 3.02亿 | | 600791 | 京能置业 | 6.22 | -4.45% | 22.71万 | 1.43亿 | | 000609 | ST中迪 | 7.28 | -3.45% | 15.33万 | 1.13亿 | | 600736 | 苏州高新 | 7.09 | -3.14% | 54.21万 | 3.89亿 | | 600246 | 万通发展 | 12.67 | -2.91% | 71.18万 | 9.18亿 | | 000042 | 中洲控股 | 8.21 | -2.73% | 18.90万 | 1.57亿 | | 600185 | 珠免集团 | 6. ...

房地产ETF(512200)紧密跟踪中证全指房地产指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整 体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行 业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制 指数，形成中证全指行业指数。指数前十大权重股分别为保利发展、张江高科、万科A、招商蛇口、海 南机场、衢州发展、万通发展（维权）、新城控股、滨江集团、先导基电。 房地产ETF(512200)，场外联接(A类：004642；C类：004643) 同时行业迎来多重政策利好共振，融资 "白名单" 展期5年为房企提供充足的资金周转缓冲期，精准缓解 流动性压力，商业不动产 REITs 试点启动有效激活房企存量资产，降低行业融资依赖度，叠加权威层 面明确行业基础地位与存量提质发展方向，政策端形成 "短期纾困 + 长期转型" 的完整支撑体系，持续 提振市场对行业的发展信心。尽管当前行业销售、价格仍处于承压阶段，但政策红利正加速释放，驱动 行业彻底告别高杠杆、高扩张的旧发展模式，向存量优化、产品提质、运营高效的高质量发展新阶段迈 进，行业 ...

据了解，"三道红线"是2020年8月由中国人民银行、住房和城乡建设部制定的房地产企业融资监管政策，旨在控 制房企杠杆率并防范金融风险，其核心指标包括剔除预收款后的资产负债率不超过70%、净负债率不超过100%、 现金短债比不低于1倍，并根据触线情况将房企分为"红、橙、黄、绿"四档以限制其有息负债增速。 那么"三道红线"为什么正在退出历史舞台？广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，"三道红 线"在当前市场环境下已不合时宜。他进一步分析称，一方面，全国房企到位资金已连续四年负增长，年均降幅 达17.5%，超过了新建商品房销售额四年间15.7%的年均跌幅，房企融资出现过度收缩的状况。这背后既受房地产 市场下行背景下银行"雨天收伞"的惯性操作影响，也源于近年来行业出险企业持续增加，致使金融机构贷款投放 趋于过度谨慎；同时，不少房企主动收缩经营规模，自身的信贷需求也有所回落。但房企贷款规模的缩减，引发 地产金融加速器效应逆转，行业通缩问题愈加严重，这是市场不稳的重要原因。 1月29日，地产股早盘持续走高。截至午间收盘，A股房企中珠江股份、大悦城、三湘印象、深深房A等涨超 10%，特发服务、新城控股等涨超5% ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].