Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

据悉，新城控股立足于江苏省内吾悦广场的规模优势，统一开展五大系列活动：通过苏超官方合作承接 球迷的服务需求，设置沉浸式直播观赛专区，提供多元化球迷应援服务，推出免费停车及观赛赠饮福 利，并设置主会场免费接驳，辅以全省商业体的联动宣发，以此为消费者带来"观赛+购物+社交"的一 站式新体验。 以"直播观赛"为例，吾悦广场在官方授权下，特别设置苏超专属直播观赛区，高清画质与沉浸式观赛体 验，为球迷打造苏超"第二主场"。 近期，如火如荼进行的江苏省城市足球联赛（简称'苏超'）在传递体育正能量、弘扬城市精神的同时， 也深度激活了市民文化认同感，为区域消费市场注入强劲动能。作为起源于江苏的民营企业，新城控股 (601155.SH)积极响应文商旅体融合发展的政策号召，携手苏超以"吾悦爱江苏"为主题，整合省内吾悦 广场的场地资源，以全方位的贴心服务及一系列丰富多样的消费场景，将吾悦广场升级为承接球迷服 务、城市情感、文旅消费的"第二主场"，深度诠释吾悦商管"与人欢喜"的品牌理念，以实际行动践 行"让幸福变得简单"的企业使命。 "体育+商业"融合 吾悦广场流量增长新密码 2012年，新城控股的第一座吾悦广场从江苏常州扬帆起航， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][14][25] Core Insights - The central urban work conference held from July 14 to 15, 2025, marks a transition in China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban expansion [5][6] - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aligning with previous action plans and signaling forthcoming supportive policies [5][6] - The report anticipates that urban development will increasingly focus on core cities, with a shift towards improving existing urban stock rather than expanding new areas [5][6] - Future urban development is expected to differentiate between cities, with a strong emphasis on creating modern, livable, and resilient urban environments [5][6] Summary by Sections Urban Development Transition - The report notes that urbanization is moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of stable development, with a focus on enhancing existing urban quality [5][7] - The emphasis is on integrated planning for population, industry, urban areas, and transportation to optimize urban spatial structures [5][9] Urban Renewal as a Strategy - Urban renewal is identified as a critical lever for achieving high-quality urban development, with expectations for specific policies to be implemented following the conference [5][8] - The report suggests that urban renewal efforts will be concentrated in first and second-tier cities, reflecting a strategic shift in urban planning [5][8] Future Urban Development Focus - The report outlines seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, enhancing livability, promoting green cities, ensuring safety, cultivating cultural values, and developing smart cities [8][9][10] - The focus on creating "good housing" aligns with the broader goal of improving living conditions and urban quality, with potential support for quality real estate companies [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the real estate sector, including those with strong product capabilities and those positioned for valuation recovery, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [5][14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

房地产 2025 年 07 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比下降，加大闲 置存量土地回收力度—行业周报》 -2025.7.13 《新房成交面积环比增长，多地力推 商转公贷款—行业周报》-2025.7.6 《2025 年 1-6 月强销售金额点评：1-6 月百强销售同比收缩，建发金茂单月 销 售 表 现 靓 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.7.1 新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价同比降幅缩小 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价同比降幅缩小 国家统计 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]

为拓宽融资渠道，新城控股（601155）正在推进以持有的吾悦广场发行不动产资产支持专项计划 (ABS)。记者获悉，拟发行金额约10亿元，其中股权融资逾5亿元，预计8月底9月初可完成发行。据 悉，本周新城控股和计划管理人国金证券资产管理有限公司已经组织投资人进行路演活动，涉及保险公 司、券商自营资管计划、银行理财等资金方。除此之外，新城控股还在推进中债增担保的中期票据，预 计金额在10亿至20亿元之间；同步推进的有公司债，拟发行金额60亿元，第一期金额为7亿元，目前交 易所已经受理。(智通财经) ...

广发证券指出，2025年下半年地产或将具备强拐点机会。从2023年定调缓和，到2024年"止跌回稳"，目 前市场价格表现再一次推进到了重大政策表态的临界点。市场交易表现大幅好转，回归消费性需 求，"好房子"也得到了认可。但资产价格下跌所导致的风险传导问题仍然存在，未来一年或将迎来本轮 地产下行期最重要的拐点窗口。 估值端来看，以央国企、优质房企为代表的龙头地产当前仍处估值低位。以地产ETF（159707）标的指 数为例，中证800地产指数最新PB估值仅为0.7倍，处近10年约13%分位点，估值低位特征明显，修复空 间或较大。行业集中度加速提升，头部房企有望凭借"好信用、好城市、好产品"策略展现韧性，建议持 续关注。 布局央国企及优质房企，建议重点关注地产ETF（159707）。资料显示，地产ETF（159707）跟踪中证 800地产指数，汇集市场13只头部优质房企，在投资方向上具有明显的头部集中度优势，前十大成份股 周四（7月10日），龙头地产板块久违大涨，代表A股龙头地产行情的中证800地产指数大涨超3%，成 份股全线飘红。其中，绿地控股涨停，新城控股涨超7%，衢州发展、滨江集团涨超5%，陆家嘴、招商 蛇口 ...

以"吾悦直播观赛"为例，为了让更多球迷能够身临其境感受苏超联赛的激情与魅力，吾悦广场在官方授 权下，特别设置苏超专属直播观赛区，高清画质与沉浸式观赛体验，打造承接球迷服务、城市情感、文 旅消费的"第二主场"。 据悉，7月5日至6日周末期间，新城控股在江苏在营广场累计组织62场高清赛事转播，吸引12000名球迷 到场，远超前期报名人数；同步推出"球迷应援服务"，包括广场的免费停车及观赛赠饮活动，以及在营 广场的定制应援礼包等，成功实现体育赛事与商业空间的深度互融。 而借助13城、46座吾悦广场的强大规模优势，新城控股还同步开启联合宣发活动，创新构建"集团-商管 总部-区域-项目"四级传播体系，以立体化传播将苏超联赛的精彩瞬间与吾悦广场的品牌形象深度融 合，共同打造一场城市文化盛宴，不仅有效提升吾悦广场的品牌影响力，更为苏超联赛注入新的活力与 动力。 "体育+商业"融合 2025年江苏足球超级联赛（简称'苏超联赛'）备受瞩目，这场绿茵盛宴已超越体育赛事本身，成为串联 城市文化与商业活力的重要纽带。作为起源于江苏的民营企业，新城控股（601155.SH）积极响应文商 旅体融合发展的号召，敏锐捕捉到"苏超"这一快速崛 ...