2025 年 10 月 22 日 行业研究 1-9 月百城宅地成交"量缩价升"，30 城整体溢价率 11% ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 9 月） 要点 2025 年 1-9 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-6%，成交楼面均价同比+17%。 2025 年 1-9 月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 1.54 亿平，累计同比-6.2%；成交 楼面均价为 6,847 元/平方米，累计同比+17.1%。分能级城市来看，1-9 月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 726 万平，累计同比-26.9%；成交建面为 613 万平，累计同比-23.6%；成交楼面均价为 41,137 元/平方米，累计同比+42.0%。 1-9 月核心 30 城宅地成交面积占百城比重 48%，成交总价占百城比重 82%。 2025 年 1-9 月，光大核心 30 城宅地成交建面 7,430 万平，占百城住宅用地成交 建面的比重为 48.1%；核心 6 城宅地成交建面 1,854 万平，占百城比重为 12.0%； 光大核心 30 城宅地成交总价 8,671 亿元，占百城比重为 82.0%；核心 6 城宅地 成交总价 4,976 亿元，占百城比重为 ...

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025年9月月报 9 月楼市成交同环比增速均转正；土拍市场热度回落 核心观点 【新房成交】 比-8.5%。 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《房地产行业 2025 年 8 月统计局数据点评：单月 销售面积、开工与投资降幅进一步扩大；商品住宅 销售均价环比增速转正》（2025/09/16） 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅持平，二手房扩大；一 线城市二手房连续 4 个月跌幅超过二三线城市—— 房地产行业 2025 年 8 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点 评》（2025/09/16） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 （2025/09/10） 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/09） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业 主线——房地产行业 2025 年年度策略》 （2024/12/13 ...

房地产ETF基金紧密跟踪中证全指房地产指数。最新数据显示，中证全指房地产指数前十大权重股分别 为保利发展、万科A、张江高科、招商蛇口、海南机场、衢州发展、滨江集团、新城控股、万业企业、 万通发展。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 上海统计局发布房地产相关数据，2025年1-9月，本市房地产开发投资比去年同期增长2.2%。 房地产ETF基金今日逆势上涨1.41%，持仓股票盈新发展、珠免集团、光明地产、天保基建涨停。 消息面，10月20日，国家统计局发布9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，9月 份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 房地产行业第 42 周周报（2025 年 10 月 11 日-2025 年 10 月 17 日） 本周楼市成交同比降幅收窄，成都出台公积金新政 新房、二手房成交面积环比均由负转正，同比降幅均收窄；新房库存面积同环比均下 降；去化周期环比下降，同比上涨。 核心观点 政策 成都出台公积金新政：政策覆盖范围更广，"商转公"贷款合作银行增加。10 月 15 日，成都住房公积金管理委员会发布《成都商业性个人住房贷款转住房公积金 个人住房贷款管理办法（修订）》， 自 2025 年 10 月 15 日起正式施行，有效期 五年。取消"本市缴存"限制，符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理"商转公" 贷款业务。在原 15 家公积金贷款合作银行基础上，与成都公积金中心签订《商转 公贷款合作协议》的商业银行均可参与办理"商转公"贷款业务。 投资建议： 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

转自：智通财经 【房地产板块震荡走高 香江控股等多股涨停】智通财经10月21日电，房地产板块盘中震荡走高，香江 控股、光明地产、盈新发展、财信发展涨停，上实发展、大悦城、新城控股、珠江股份等跟涨。消息面 上，10月20日，国家统计局发布9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，9月份，70 个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 ...

开竣工边际改善，房价仍有压力 证券研究报告 房地产 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 20 日│中国内地 行业月报 行业仍在筑底企稳之中，更看好核心城市资源充沛的房企 9 月数据显示行业仍处于筑底企稳之中，边际上开竣工面积与销售金额当月 同比降幅收窄，但房价环比仍有下行压力，市场全面修复尚未到来。我们更 看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复苏节奏，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新 获取资源的房企的估值修复，推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的 地产股，分红与业绩稳健的头部物管公司。重点推荐：1）A 股开发：城建 发展、城投控股、新城控股、滨江集团、招商蛇口；2）港股开发：华润置 地、建发国际集团、中国海外发展、绿城中国、越秀地产；3）物管公司： 绿城服务、华润万象生活、万物云、招商积余。 开发投资当月同比降幅扩大，开竣工边际改善 9 月房地产开发投资当月同比降有所扩大，开竣工边际有所改善，施工面积 延续下滑。9 月开发投资额当月同比-21%，降幅较 8 月扩大 1.8pct，1-9 月 累计同比-14%。区分开发链条来看：1）拿地：9 月土地市场成交情况边际 好转，成交建面/成交金额分别同比-1%/-7%（8 月- ...

2025 年 10 月 20 日 房地产 周专题：四季度地产如何展望 国庆黄金周楼市实际情况如何？ 2025 年国庆黄金周楼市呈现底部企稳迹象，30 大中城市商品房成交 套数达 4304 套，同比增长 1.7%，为 2020 年以来首次实现同比正增 长。市场分化格局明显，一线城市和三线城市表现亮眼，成交量分别 同比增长 18.3%和 24.0%，而二线城市同比下降 25.9%。从城市层面 看，29 个监测城市中有 11 个实现同比增长，大连、江阴、眉山等城 市增幅显著，而芜湖、苏州、济南等城市降幅较大。二手房市场整体 同比下降 51.8%，但剔除上海后仅小幅下滑 6.6%，北京是唯一实现增 长的重点城市。 高频数据能否真实反应楼市热度？ 由于统计口径差异和数据质量问题，高频数据在反映节假日楼市真实 热度方面存在局限性。日度网签备案数据受节假日影响明显，通常较 日常成交规模显著偏低，且存在从签约到备案的时间迟滞。相比之下， 新房供应节奏和二手房看房人次,从侧面反应房企推盘意愿及市场需 求热度。数据显示，9 月核心城市新房批准预售面积达 705 万㎡，为 年内最高值，表明优质项目供应充足。二手房看房人数自 7 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].