Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-11-17 08:33Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have surged, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand and supply dynamics in the market [2][4][6] - As of November 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate closed at 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 30% increase since mid-October [2][4] - The strong performance in lithium carbonate prices has led to significant gains in related sectors, particularly energy metals and battery manufacturers, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit up [2][4] Group 2 - Supply dynamics show a trend of "domestic production increase and import contraction," with September imports down by 10.3% and exports down by 59.12% [4][5] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43%, indicating constraints in capacity release [4][5] - Demand is being driven by a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with October production reaching 1.772 million units, a 9.59% month-on-month increase [4][5] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing, with October lithium carbonate monthly inventory at 84,234 tons and a weekly inventory of 120,472 tons, indicating a trend of supply-demand improvement [5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term demand is strong, there are concerns about potential supply pressures in the long term due to high operating rates and new capacities coming online [5][6] - Predictions indicate that if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, prices could potentially break through 150,000 yuan/ton, with a possibility of reaching 200,000 yuan/ton if supply cannot keep pace [6]