中国银河证券：钢铁行业盈利修复 关注供给侧变革

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in profitability, with leading steel companies showing substantial increases in net profit and some turning losses into profits [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of key steel enterprises was 4.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, while total profit reached 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times, indicating a marked improvement in industry efficiency [1] - The sales profit margin for the steel industry increased to 2.1%, up by 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced profitability [1] Group 2 - The supply-side policies aimed at reducing overcapacity have been intensified, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly issuing a plan for stable growth in the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The structure of steel products is continuously optimizing, with the proportion of steel used in manufacturing rising from 42% in 2020 to an expected 50% in 2025, while the proportion used in construction is declining [2] - High-end product development is accelerating, with the production of silicon steel expected to reach approximately 18 million tons in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020 [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the number of steel industry holdings by fund companies increased to 41, with a total holding amount of 21.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.44% [3] - The steel industry holdings accounted for 0.50% of total fund holdings, indicating a growing interest in the sector [3] - Fund holdings in the steel industry are expected to have significant upward potential due to ongoing supply-side reforms and marginal recovery in company performance [3]