11月USDA报告解读：利多出尽？

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's November supply and demand report for U.S. soybeans did not exceed market expectations, leading to a decline in soybean prices after the report's release [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Production and Exports - The USDA adjusted the 2024/2025 soybean production forecast from 4.366 billion bushels to 4.374 billion bushels, with a slight decrease in yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre [2]. - The export forecast for the 2025/2026 season was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, reflecting a challenging export environment due to trade tensions and pricing issues compared to Brazilian soybeans [2][5]. Group 2: South American Soybean Production - Brazil's old crop production was revised upward from 169 million tons to 171.5 million tons, with exports also increased from 102.1 million tons to 103.14 million tons [3]. - Argentina's old crop production was adjusted from 50.9 million tons to 51.11 million tons, with exports increased from 7.3 million tons to 7.87 million tons [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Outlook - The total global soybean supply for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 731.5 million tons, up from 721.4 million tons the previous year, while total demand is expected to reach 609.51 million tons, compared to 598.06 million tons last year [4]. - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio is estimated at 20.01%, slightly down from 20.62% the previous year, indicating a still ample supply despite U.S. production adjustments [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term export performance for U.S. soybeans is critical, with the potential for the revised export figure of 1.635 billion bushels to be unmet due to competitive pricing from Brazil [5]. - Domestic soybean processing remains high, but the market is experiencing a near-term strong and long-term weak trend in soybean meal prices, reflecting ongoing supply dynamics [5]. Group 5: Weather and Long-term Production Factors - The current planting conditions in South America are slightly delayed, but overall production levels are expected to remain robust, with weather patterns needing to be monitored closely [6][7]. - Historical data suggests that La Niña events have negatively impacted Argentine soybean yields, with an average reduction of 0.24 tons per hectare during such events [7].