智昇黄金原油分析：关税利于通胀 降息概率下降

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent sharp decline in gold prices indicates potential end of the bull market, driven by decreased risk aversion as the US government resumes normal operations [1] - The temporary funding bill passed by Congress leaves nine budget items unresolved, raising the risk of a government shutdown in two months [1] - Technical analysis shows a bearish pattern with a "evening star" formation, suggesting further downside potential for gold prices [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports an increase in global oil supply by 3.1 million barrels per day this year, exceeding previous forecasts [2] - Oil demand is projected to rise but at a slower rate than supply, leading to an increase in global oil inventories [2] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices remain in a downtrend, with potential resistance at $59.80 [2] Group 3: Dollar Index - The dollar index shows signs of potential long-term weakness, influenced by changing expectations around interest rate cuts [2][3] - Recent Fed research indicates that higher tariffs may reduce economic activity and inflation, impacting consumer and investor confidence [3] - Technical analysis suggests a possible short-term rebound for the dollar index, with support at 99.20 [3] Group 4: Economic Data - US EIA crude oil inventories rose by 6.413 million barrels for the week ending November 7, marking consecutive increases [4] - Eurozone GDP for Q3 revised to 1.4%, slightly above the previous estimate of 1.3% [5] - US EIA natural gas inventories increased by 450 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 7 [5]