长城投研速递：短期市场或延续震荡

Domestic Macro - In October, major economic indicators showed a decline, with industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates slowing compared to September. The high base from last year's policy stimulus and the misalignment of holidays contributed to short-term disturbances, indicating insufficient domestic demand and external pressure that require policy support [1][7] - The industrial added value in October grew by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, while from January to October, it increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Real estate development investment from January to October was 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [7] Foreign Macro - Overseas markets continued to experience fluctuations, particularly in US tech stocks, which affected sentiment in the A-share market. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.45% [8] - Several factors contributed to the ongoing adjustment in US stocks, including the absence of key economic data during the government shutdown, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and concerns over the sustainability of debt financing for AI giants [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable period despite some pressure on the fundamentals. The central bank has indicated that during this critical economic transition, it is not advisable to overly focus on total data changes [10][15] - The overall liquidity in the market is anticipated to stay relatively loose in the medium term, with the bond market likely to continue benefiting from this environment [15] Equity Market - The market is entering a period of total policy and profit vacuum, with accelerated rotation in the tech sector and increased highlights in low-position consumption and dividends. The high-yield, risk-free financial assets are diminishing, and the influx of new capital is far from over [20] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01% last week, with 20 out of 31 industries showing gains [16][20] Investment Strategy - Emerging technology is expected to be a main focus, with cyclical consumption looking towards transformation. Attention should be given to sectors that have experienced prolonged corrections and significant adjustments [21][22] - Specific directions include technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on areas such as internet, robotics, semiconductor, and consumer electronics [22]