迎接“十五五” 投资新时代 长钱长投 资本变局

Core Viewpoint - The cultivation of long-term capital and patient capital is essential for the high-quality development of capital markets, with the "long money long investment" ecosystem becoming a core theme of the capital market reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Market Reform - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for a capital market that supports high-level technological self-reliance and modern industrial systems, moving from high-speed growth to high-quality development [1][2]. - As of August 2025, long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in the A-share market, accounting for over 40% of the total market value, indicating significant room for improvement compared to mature markets [2][3]. - The current proportion of patient capital capable of "crossing cycles" is less than 15%, leading to market volatility and inefficiencies in resource allocation [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Institutional Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to create a more attractive environment for long-term and patient capital through various reforms, including long-cycle assessment mechanisms and tax incentives [3][4]. - The focus is on enhancing the investment environment for long-term funds, promoting public fund reforms, and developing equity public funds [3][4]. - The regulatory framework is shifting towards supporting long-term capital through tax incentives and product innovations, fostering a stable investment ecosystem [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Preferences and Trends - Long-term capital typically seeks stable returns with a focus on high dividend yields and low volatility, while patient capital is more inclined towards high-risk, high-reward investments in innovative sectors [9][10]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with long-term capital increasingly favoring sectors like technology, green energy, and high-quality blue-chip stocks [21][22]. - Patient capital is characterized by its focus on early-stage investments in hard technology sectors, supporting companies through their development phases [22][23]. Group 4: Market Structure and Dynamics - The entry of long-term and patient capital is reshaping the investor structure in the A-share market, with institutional investors expected to dominate, reducing the proportion of retail investors significantly [26][27]. - The valuation system is transitioning towards a fundamental-driven approach, with a growing emphasis on the performance and governance of companies [27][28]. - The financing ecosystem is shifting from a financing-dominated model to a balanced investment and financing model, enhancing the overall market efficiency [28][29]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is anticipated that the total market value held by long-term and patient capital will exceed 40 trillion yuan, representing over 70% of the market [36][37]. - The market is expected to exhibit characteristics of a "slow bull" and "long bull" market, with reduced volatility and improved corporate governance [37][38]. - The capital market is projected to play a crucial role in supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades, significantly contributing to the high-quality development of the economy [37][38].