AI黄金时代已至？中美科技股，该选谁？

Core Insights - The recent week marked the most volatile period for US tech stocks since April, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 3% and major AI companies like Microsoft and Nvidia losing a combined market value of approximately $800 billion, leading to a total loss of nearly $1 trillion in the AI sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Concerns and AI Bubble - The sell-off was triggered by renewed concerns over an AI bubble, particularly following questions about whether the government should guarantee OpenAI's AI infrastructure, which raised investor fears about excessive reliance on capital investment [3] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that if current trends continue, China may win the AI competition, intensifying the ongoing US-China AI rivalry [3] Group 2: Profitability and Growth Potential - Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the US AI industry has experienced explosive growth, with the capital expenditure growth rate of the "Magnificent Seven" reaching 64.8%, and AI investment is expected to contribute to US economic growth at a level comparable to consumer spending by 2025 [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratio of the "Magnificent Seven" is approximately 29 times, significantly lower than the extreme levels seen during the tech bubble, indicating that the current rise is supported by solid profit growth rather than mere speculation [7] Group 3: Earnings and Capital Expenditure - The ability to convert substantial capital expenditure into sustainable profits is crucial to dispelling the AI bubble narrative, with recent earnings reports showing an expected EPS growth rate of 18.2%, nearly double the overall market growth rate, and projected total profits for M8 reaching $700 billion by 2025 [9] Group 4: China's AI Market Dynamics - The AI bull market in the US is gradually influencing the Chinese market, with the Chinese AI industry entering a fast track since the release of DeepSeek-R1 in 2025 [11] - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4000 points for the first time in a decade, with technology stocks represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR Market showing year-to-date gains exceeding 30%, indicating a market driven by the Chinese AI sector [12] Group 5: Valuation and Investment Strategy - Chinese technology stocks exhibit significant valuation differentiation, with upstream chip companies having high valuations while internet platforms still offer value, highlighting a clear overall valuation advantage [13] - China's unique path of "algorithm open-sourcing + application scenarioization" is effectively driving profitability by lowering technical barriers and integrating deeply with manufacturing, particularly in verticals like smart manufacturing and smart cities [16] Group 6: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Historical experience suggests that as the industry cycle continues upward and corporate profits grow steadily, high valuations will gradually be diluted by performance, allowing the bull market to persist amid volatility [19] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with solid technology, sustainable profits, and verifiable value, while maintaining a "value-for-money first" principle in their investment strategies [20]