Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-17 10:25Market Reaction - The reopening of the U.S. government after a 40-day shutdown was initially expected to be a positive catalyst for the market, but instead led to a significant drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 800 points [1][3] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index and the technology sector also experienced substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000, marking its lowest closing price since May [1][3] Economic Data Concerns - The shutdown resulted in a backlog of economic data, which investors rely on to gauge economic trends. The release of this data caused market anxiety rather than relief [3][5] - There is uncertainty regarding how the accumulated data will impact market expectations, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [5][7] Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped significantly, with market bets falling from 63% to 50% in just one day, compared to nearly 70% a week prior [5][7] - Diverging views within the Federal Reserve regarding employment and inflation are contributing to market volatility, as changes in interest rate expectations lead to rapid shifts in capital [7][8] Sector Performance - The technology sector was notably affected, with companies like Cloudflare and Nvidia experiencing significant stock price declines due to high valuations and profit-taking [9][11] - Other sectors, such as healthcare, which previously supported the market, lost momentum, further exacerbating the declines in major indices [13] Capital Flows - There has been a notable shift in capital flows, with over $20 billion flowing into defensive sectors of the S&P 500 since October, while the technology sector saw a net outflow of over $35 billion [15] - Some companies, like Cisco, saw stock price increases due to positive earnings outlooks, while the energy sector was the only one to gain on a specific day, attributed to stable oil prices [15] Future Outlook - The U.S. Labor Department is expected to release the backlog of economic data soon, which will provide clearer direction for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [18][20] - Despite current market uncertainties, the long-term outlook for technology and artificial intelligence sectors remains positive, although short-term valuations may need to adjust [18][20]