邓正红能源软实力：石油需求增长依然疲弱 石油市场处于“规则相变”临界点

Group 1 - Brent crude oil futures prices have dropped by 14% this year, reaching approximately $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC member countries, with predictions of further price declines [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests that OPEC may significantly cut production in 2026 to avoid a price crash, with a potential policy shift only if demand collapses and prices fall below $50 per barrel [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day in the global market, unprecedented in scale, due to weak oil demand and strong supply from the US, Brazil, and Guyana [1][2] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's strategy focuses on regaining market share through increased production, but faces challenges with an expanding budget deficit, leading to cuts in economic project investments [2] - Russia's approach involves market restructuring and geopolitical leverage, such as extending fuel export bans, but has seen a 1% decline in oil exports and a 6% drop in revenue as of August [2] - The US is experiencing diminishing returns from shale oil technology, facing challenges with policy adjustment effectiveness and weak demand [2] Group 3 - The current market is at a critical point of "rule transformation," where OPEC must balance market share and price stability amid surplus pressures in early 2026 [3] - If OPEC successfully navigates the market downturn, it may reshape global energy governance through the establishment of technical standards, such as low-carbon oil certification [3] - The IEA warns that a surplus of 4 million barrels per day could trigger a price crash, necessitating a policy reversal, highlighting the importance of resource potential conversion into sustainable rule innovation [3]