大摩坚定唱多美股：盈利强劲支撑牛市 标普500明年料再涨16%至7800点

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson predicts a 16% increase in the S&P 500 index over the next year, supported by strong corporate earnings [1] - Wilson expects the S&P 500 index to reach approximately 7,800 points by the end of 2026, marking a potential fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains [1] - The S&P 500 index has already risen 14% year-to-date, following over 20% gains in the previous two years [1] Group 2 - Wilson highlights stronger pricing power, efficiency gains from artificial intelligence, and stable interest rates as key factors supporting this bullish outlook [1] - Despite the optimistic forecast, Wilson warns of short-term risks if the Federal Reserve maintains a more aggressive stance than expected [2] - Wilson's previous predictions have proven accurate, as he maintained a bullish view even after significant market declines due to tariffs [2] Group 3 - Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives describes current market anxiety over AI trading as "short-sighted," asserting that the tech bull market will continue for at least two more years [3] - Ives notes a 30% increase in demand for semiconductor ETFs since June, framing the current environment as a "capital expenditure supercycle" [3] - Mariner Wealth Advisors' Jeff Krumpelman believes recent volatility in tech stocks is more about profit-taking and government shutdown impacts rather than fundamental changes in AI or earnings [3][4] Group 4 - Ives emphasizes that early-stage AI applications represent a significant trend that will last for years, distinguishing it from the 2000 internet bubble [4] - Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer predicts that the S&P 500 will underperform compared to other global markets over the next decade, with an expected annualized return of 6.5% [4] - Emerging markets are forecasted to outperform, with an anticipated annualized return of 10.9% over the same period [4]