大摩重磅展望：2026年是“风险重启之年”，美股盈利走强+AI投资周期共振，标普500或升至7800点！

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's 2026 Global Strategy Outlook predicts a strong year for risk assets driven by a unique combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies, alongside robust corporate earnings growth, with the S&P 500 expected to lead global markets [1][4]. Policy Environment - The report highlights a rare "policy triumvirate" where fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory easing will work in a pro-cyclical manner, creating a favorable environment for risk assets [4][5]. - Specific fiscal measures include the anticipated passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" which is expected to reduce corporate taxes by $129 billion in 2026-27 [4]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026 to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [4]. - Regulatory easing is expected to prioritize the energy and financial sectors [4]. AI Investment - AI-related capital expenditures are identified as a key growth driver, with a projected total of nearly $3 trillion in data center-related capital spending, of which less than 20% has been deployed so far [7]. - There is a significant financing gap of up to $1.5 trillion that will need to be filled through various credit channels [7][9]. Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index target for the end of 2026 is raised to 7,800, reflecting a 15% increase from current levels, supported by strong earnings growth and AI-driven efficiency improvements [1][10]. - The report forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 12% in 2025 and 17% in 2026, driven by improved corporate pricing power and a stable interest rate environment [9][10]. Credit Market Outlook - The credit market is expected to see significant differentiation, with high-yield bonds likely outperforming investment-grade bonds due to increased demand from AI-related financing [22]. - Investment-grade corporate bond issuance is projected to increase by 60%, primarily driven by AI and data center financing needs [22]. Commodity Preferences - In the commodities sector, Morgan Stanley favors metals over energy, with gold being the top choice, setting a target price of $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of about 9% [3][23]. - The report anticipates challenges in copper supply due to mining disruptions, predicting a shortfall of 600,000 tons by 2026 [26]. Global Market Insights - The outlook for the Japanese market is positive, with a target for the TOPIX index set at 3,600, benefiting from inflation recovery and corporate governance reforms [13]. - European markets face structural challenges, with growth primarily driven by valuation expansion rather than earnings improvement [18].