每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-11-17）

Group 1: Oil Demand and Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts global oil demand will continue to grow, reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2040, up from 103.5 million barrels per day last year, driven by energy demand and challenges in low-carbon technology scaling [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts the Hang Seng Index to have a base target of 27,500 points by the end of next year, with optimistic and pessimistic scenarios set at 34,700 points and 18,700 points respectively [1] - Barclays anticipates the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury bonds in February next year, following indications from key officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - The Dutch International Group suggests that the decline in the GBP/EUR exchange rate may be reversed if the UK government maintains fiscal discipline in the upcoming budget [1] - A Bank of America survey reveals a split among investors regarding the impact of AI on future interest rates, with 27% expecting lower rates and a steeper yield curve, while 24% foresee higher rates and a steeper curve [2] Group 3: Gold Market and Investment Strategies - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes the current gold bull market may not be over, with potential for prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce next year, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and structural adjustments in global reserves [4] - CICC also sees no signs of a peak in the Chinese stock market, recommending an overweight position due to benefits from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity [5] - Guotai Junan reports that liquidity issues are easing, allowing gold to return to an upward trend following the end of the U.S. government shutdown [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Macquarie Bank highlights that concerns over fiscal policies in the UK and France are likely to strengthen the U.S. dollar by year-end, as uncertainty in the UK budget raises sustainability concerns for the GBP [3] - Guotai Junan notes that the NAND Flash industry is entering a super cycle driven by AI applications, with SSD market capitalization expected to surpass HDD [7] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the aviation sector is entering an upward cycle, with improved supply-demand dynamics and expectations for reduced losses in Q4 2025 [8]