内存条炒成“黑金条”，手机和笔记本电脑很可能都要涨价了

Group 1 - The global market is expected to face uncertainty in 2026, particularly due to a strong upward cycle in memory prices, leading to increased costs for end products and potential price hikes in the consumer market [1][2] - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones and laptops for 2026, from a growth of 0.1% and 1.7% to declines of 2% and 2.4% respectively [1] - If the imbalance in memory supply and demand worsens, or if end product price increases exceed expectations, further downward revisions to production forecasts may occur [1] Group 2 - The price increase of smartphone memory in 2025 is primarily driven by DRAM, with contract prices rising over 75% compared to the previous year, leading to an increase in BOM costs by 8%-10% [1] - The overall BOM cost for devices is expected to rise by an additional 5%-7% next year, which may lead brands to adjust their product mix and increase end product prices to maintain operations [1][2] - Smaller smartphone brands may face challenges in resource acquisition, potentially leading to a market reshuffle favoring larger players [2] Group 3 - The laptop market is also under pressure, with DRAM and NAND Flash accounting for approximately 10%-18% of the BOM cost, which is expected to rise above 20% due to ongoing price increases [2] - If brands pass on costs, laptop prices may increase by 5%-15% in 2026, impacting demand and potentially leading to delayed upgrades or a shift to the second-hand market [2] - The high demand for storage products is closely linked to the global AI data center construction phase, with major internet companies increasing their investment in computing power [3] Group 4 - Major memory chip manufacturers are shifting production focus to high-end products, exacerbating supply shortages in the mid-to-low-end market [3] - The rising storage costs have already impacted consumer electronics, as seen in Xiaomi's pricing strategy for its Redmi K90 smartphone [3]