美联储“内战”爆发？鲍威尔面临领导力危机，降息之路再生变数！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant division among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions, breaking a long-standing consensus under Chairman Powell's leadership [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - In late October, the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points with a narrow majority, marking the first time since 2019 that there were opposing votes among decision-makers [2]. - The division among Federal Reserve officials is a direct result of economic uncertainty and the impact of President Trump's aggressive trade policies, leading to differing priorities between controlling inflation and supporting a weakening labor market [2][3]. - The complexity of decision-making has increased, as the Fed previously needed to lower borrowing costs significantly during the pandemic and then raised rates aggressively in 2022 to combat inflation [4]. Group 2: Implications of Division - A more divided Federal Reserve may have mixed implications for its effectiveness and credibility, with some economists suggesting it could lead to more moderate actions [5][6]. - The lack of key economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has made it more challenging for the Fed to assess the economy, complicating future decisions [6][7]. Group 3: Perspectives of Federal Reserve Officials - Some officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, voted against the rate cut, citing concerns over rising costs and inflation [7]. - Conversely, officials advocating for further rate cuts argue that tariffs are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation and express concerns about the labor market's potential decline if rate cuts are not implemented swiftly [8].