楼市成交量会在这个时间点后提升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the real estate market is expected to experience a prolonged downturn, with a consensus forming among buyers that prices will continue to decline for an extended period [1][2][3] - Buyers are becoming more professional and focused on actual returns rather than speculative narratives, leading to a shift in expectations from short-term stabilization to long-term adjustment [1] - The average rental yield in first-tier cities is currently only 1.8%, while mortgage rates average 3.1%, indicating that rental income is insufficient to cover mortgage interest [2] Group 2 - The inventory of second-hand homes in 50 major cities has reached a historical high of 4.4 million listings, contributing to the downward pressure on rental prices [2] - UBS predicts that it will take until mid-2027 to digest the existing inventory, with ongoing price declines expected during this period [2] - Banks are currently stable and do not anticipate significant risks, as the loan-to-value ratio for properties in their possession is only 40-55%, allowing them to absorb further price declines [2][3] Group 3 - The consensus on future price declines is expected to stabilize the market, leading to an increase in transaction volumes despite ongoing price drops [3] - The real estate market's sluggishness is anticipated to continue, which may have a drag effect on the overall economy [3] - Banks are unlikely to initiate market rescue efforts, as they prefer to extend the timeline to gradually manage the situation [3]