FX Markets Bracing For Government Reopening Fundamentals

Core Insights - The US financial market experienced a positive week following the end of a record-long government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, allowing for the resumption of official data [1] - The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released on November 20, providing traders with crucial data after a period of uncertainty [2] - Fed officials have pushed back against expectations for further rate cuts, emphasizing that the lack of data does not warrant easier monetary policy [2] Market Sentiment - President Trump's decision to exempt key food items from reciprocal tariffs reflects growing consumer frustration over grocery prices, impacting market sentiment [3] - Risk aversion has led to a rise in USD/JPY and the Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar and British pound have lagged [3] Currency Pairs Analysis - The AUD/CHF pair has been hovering around the key level of 0.52260 since late June, showing signs of weakness with a lower low in October [4][6] - The GBP/SGD pair has been testing the level of 1.71500 unsuccessfully on three occasions, indicating potential downward movement towards 1.68700 if it remains below this level [7][9] Upcoming Events - Nvidia, the most valuable firm globally, is set to release its quarterly report, which is expected to act as a macro catalyst due to its significant role in the AI sector [10] - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report will influence expectations for the Fed's interest rate plans, with a solid but cooling labor print supporting a soft-landing narrative [12] Global Market Trends - Investors are closely watching the ongoing risk-off sentiment in the tech sector, persistent weakness in cryptocurrencies, and evolving rate-cut expectations in the UK and Europe [13]