泽连斯基一句话断送欧洲“半条命”，普京顺势而为，北约坐不住了

Core Points - The gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, signed in 2019, is set to expire at the end of 2024, with Ukraine indicating it does not wish to renew the contract [1][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced at the EU summit on December 19, 2024, that Ukraine would stop gas transit from Russia starting January 1, 2025, citing that Russian gas revenues support military actions against Ukraine [3][5] - The Ukrainian pipeline is crucial for several European countries, supplying approximately 155 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, which accounts for 4.5% of the EU's total consumption [5][11] Summary by Sections Ukraine's Position - Ukraine plans to increase transit fees by four times to compensate for lost revenue from the gas transit agreement [8] - Zelensky views the cessation of gas transit as a significant blow to Russia, cutting off a key funding source for its military operations [15][24] European Concerns - Several Eastern European countries, particularly Slovakia, are heavily reliant on this gas supply, with Slovakia sourcing 90% of its gas from Ukraine [5][11] - The cessation of gas transit is expected to lead to a rise in energy prices, with Austria's OMV warning of potential increases of over 20% [5][11] Russia's Response - Russian President Putin acknowledged the impossibility of signing a new contract in time and indicated that Russia would redirect its gas exports to Asia, particularly China [10][11] - Despite losing billions in potential revenue, Russia is expected to manage the transition due to alternative markets [11][24] Market Impact - Following the cessation of gas transit, European gas futures prices surged by 4.3% on January 2, 2025, reflecting increased costs for energy imports [13][15] - The EU is expected to gradually phase out Russian gas imports by 2028, with significant reductions anticipated in 2025 [15][24] NATO and Internal Divisions - NATO member states exhibit differing opinions on energy purchases from Russia, with some countries like Hungary continuing to buy Russian gas [18][22] - The ongoing conflict and energy crisis have created divisions within NATO regarding support for Ukraine versus energy security [22][24]