美西狂欢，俄沙噩梦：马杜罗的倒下，是全球油市的坟墓

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of the potential regime change in Venezuela, focusing on the U.S. efforts to reintegrate Venezuela into the global oil market and the resulting impact on oil prices and global energy dynamics [1][5][25]. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Reserves and Economic Situation - Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, estimated at 303.7 billion barrels, but has been isolated due to U.S. and Western sanctions, leading to a deteriorating economy and severe shortages for its citizens [3][7]. - The Maduro government relies heavily on oil and military support to maintain power amidst external pressures and internal conflicts [5][8]. Group 2: U.S. Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics - The U.S. aims to overthrow Maduro, viewing his regime as an obstacle to free markets, with the underlying motivation being Venezuela's vast oil reserves [5][10]. - If Maduro's regime falls, U.S. oil companies could rapidly increase production in Venezuela, potentially restoring output to 1.5 million barrels per day within 12 months and 3 million barrels per day within 36 months, significantly impacting global oil supply and prices [10][20]. Group 3: Global Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations - A significant increase in Venezuelan oil production could lead to a drop in Brent crude prices from $82 to between $45 and $50 per barrel, creating a substantial shift in the global oil market [10][12]. - The U.S. could benefit from lower gasoline prices domestically, which would enhance public sentiment and support for the current administration ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [12][20]. Group 4: Impact on Other Oil-Producing Nations - Russia and Saudi Arabia face severe financial challenges if oil prices drop significantly, as their economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues [16][22]. - The shift in oil supply dynamics could weaken the influence of Russia and Saudi Arabia in the global oil market, while enhancing U.S. and Western control over energy resources [14][20]. Group 5: Broader Geopolitical Consequences - The potential return of Venezuelan oil to the market could reshape energy security for Europe and India, reducing reliance on Russian energy and diversifying supply sources [18][22]. - The article suggests that the global oil market is undergoing a power reconfiguration, with the U.S. and its allies gaining leverage while traditional oil powers like Russia and Saudi Arabia are increasingly marginalized [24][25].