Evercore ISI Cuts BJ’s Wholesale Price Target to $85, Adds Stock to Underperform List

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI has lowered its price target for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings to $85 from $100, maintaining an In Line rating due to near-term margin pressures and slowing comparable-store sales [1] Financial Estimates - FY2025 EPS estimate has been cut to $4.25 and FY2026 EPS to $4.65, with expectations of modest price and wage investments to support market share and inventory turnover [2] - Q3 comparable sales growth is forecasted to be below 2%, compared to Street estimates of 2.5%, with EPS expected at $1.07, slightly below the consensus of $1.10 [3] Margin and Profitability - A 60-basis-point decline in gross margin is modeled as BJ's invests in pricing to strengthen member loyalty, while fuel mix and penny profit pressures weigh on profitability [3] - EBIT margin is forecasted at 4%, down 60 bps year over year, with EBIT expected to be $210 million, representing a 9% decline compared to the prior year [3] Future Guidance - Management is likely to guide for a 1–2% comparable sales growth in the fourth quarter, implying EPS of $0.88–$0.92 versus Street estimates of $0.94 [4] Executive Changes - Recent executive changes, including the departure of Chief Merchant Rachel Vegas to Walgreens, may indicate challenges in BJ's merchandising strategy [5] - Despite improvements in general merchandise offerings, comparable sales in the 2–3% range suggest market share softness relative to expectations for steady 3–4% growth and operating margin expansion [5]