Can Seagate Maintain its Record Margins as HAMR Adoption Accelerates?

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) has opened fiscal 2026 with strong momentum, achieving a record non-GAAP gross margin of 40.1%, which is an increase of approximately 220 basis points quarter over quarter and about 680 basis points year over year, driven by the adoption of high-capacity nearline products and pricing initiatives [1][8]. Company Performance - The data center business, which includes cloud, enterprise, and VIA customers, accounted for 80% of Seagate's total revenue, indicating a structural shift towards large-scale storage driven by AI and cloud infrastructure [2]. - Cloud exabyte demand has increased for nine consecutive quarters, with nearly 80% of nearline shipments being for capacities of 24TB or higher [2]. - Seagate has ramped up production of its 24–28 terabyte drives, which have become the best-selling product family by revenue and exabyte volume, shipping over 1 million Mozaic drives in the September quarter [3]. Product Development - Seagate is working to qualify its high-capacity Mozaic HAMR drives with five global cloud service providers (CSPs) and aims to qualify three more by the first half of 2026 [4]. - The company is on track to reach a 50% exabyte crossover on nearline HAMR drives in the second half of 2026 and is advancing towards a 5TB per disk technology launch in early 2028 [4]. Financial Outlook - Management expects solid demand from global cloud data centers, projecting revenues of $2.7 billion (+/- $100 million) for the fiscal second quarter, indicating a 16% year-over-year improvement [5]. - The non-GAAP operating margin is projected to increase to approximately 30% at the midpoint of revenue guidance, up from 23.1% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [5]. Competitive Landscape - Seagate faces challenges such as exchange rate volatility, high debt burden, and competition from Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) [6]. - Western Digital reported a 31% increase in cloud end market revenues, driven by demand for higher-capacity nearline products, and anticipates non-GAAP revenues of $2.9 billion (+/- $100 million) for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 20% year over year [7][8]. Market Performance - Over the past year, Seagate's shares have gained 166.2%, outperforming the Zacks Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 77.4% [11]. - Seagate's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 22.74X, lower than the industry's 25.68X [12].