碳酸锂价格再创新高，行业龙头重返千亿市值

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant surge, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, driven by strong demand and market sentiment, leading to a new annual high in prices [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 17, the main 2601 contract rose by 9%, reaching 95,200 yuan/ton, surpassing the previous high in August [1]. - Lithium mining stocks, such as Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy, saw substantial gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the domestic market reached 86,200 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for lithium salts is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a potential increase of 30% to 40% in demand, which could lead to prices exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton [5][16]. - The lithium salt inventory has been declining for 13 consecutive weeks, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][6]. - The production of lithium carbonate remained stable, with a slight increase in demand from downstream applications, contributing to the overall market improvement [6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The recent price increases in lithium carbonate are attributed to rising prices in related sectors, such as electrolyte materials, which have seen dramatic price hikes [7][9]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures doubled, with a total open interest reaching a historical high, reflecting increased market participation [9][12]. - Despite the recent price surges, there are concerns about the sustainability of these trends, as the market may face corrections due to the widening gap between futures and spot prices [16][17].