存储供需失衡，手机和笔记本电脑明年继续涨价？

Group 1 - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that the global consumer electronics market may face significant challenges in 2026 due to persistent global inflation and a strong upward cycle in the memory market, leading to increased costs for finished products and higher retail prices [1] - The production shipment forecast for smartphones has been revised from a 0.1% annual increase to a 2% annual decrease, while the forecast for laptops has been adjusted from a 1.7% annual increase to a 2.4% annual decrease [1] - The report warns of further downward adjustments to production forecasts if the imbalance in memory supply and demand worsens or if the increase in retail prices exceeds expectations [1] Group 2 - In the smartphone sector, the significant rise in DRAM prices is identified as a core factor driving up costs, with DRAM contract prices increasing by over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, leading to an estimated 8-10% increase in BOM costs for that year [1] - Xiaomi's founder attributed the large price differences between versions of the Redmi K90 smartphone to rising storage costs, with the company's president stating that they cannot change the global supply chain trends and that storage costs are rising beyond expectations [2] - The analysis suggests that brands will likely reduce the proportion of low-end models and increase retail prices across all product lines to maintain normal operations, indicating a potential reshuffling in the global smartphone market favoring larger brands [2] Group 3 - The laptop market is also expected to face significant pressure, with DRAM and NAND Flash accounting for approximately 10-18% of the BOM costs, which is projected to rise to over 20% due to continuous price increases [3] - If brands choose to pass on costs, it is estimated that laptop retail prices will increase by 5-15% in 2026, which will exert substantial pressure on demand [3] - The low-end laptop market is highly sensitive to price changes, leading to potential delays in upgrades or a shift towards the second-hand market, while the mid-range market may see a significant slowdown in upgrade momentum [5] Group 4 - The monitor market, while less affected due to smaller storage requirements, is still vulnerable as rising PC retail prices could lead to reduced shipments, resulting in a downward revision of the monitor shipment forecast from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [5] - Overall, the continuous rise in memory prices will create a triple pressure of cost increases, expanded channel pressures, and weak demand for the laptop market in 2026, requiring brands to balance specifications, inventory management, and channel subsidies to mitigate impacts on sales and gross margins [6] Group 5 - The recent surge in global memory chip prices has been humorously referred to as "one of the best investment products of the year," with DRAM prices soaring by 171.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The current price increase is largely attributed to the global boom in artificial intelligence chips, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix shifting production to higher-margin, advanced products, resulting in a tight supply of standard memory chips [7] - The challenges posed by the current memory price surge for the terminal industry are far from over [7]