布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：日本经济一年半来首次出现负增长

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced its first negative growth in six quarters during the third quarter of this year, with a year-on-year contraction of 1.8% [1] External Demand - The primary factor for Japan's economic contraction this quarter was weakened external demand, with its contribution to economic growth shifting from a positive 0.2 percentage points in the previous quarter to a negative 0.2 percentage points [4] - The increase in tariffs on certain imported goods by the U.S. significantly impacted Japan's export-driven economy, with a notable 24.2% year-on-year decline in automobile exports to the U.S. in September [4] - Despite an agreement between Japan and the U.S. to lower tariff levels to 15%, the overall export value still saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.2% amid weak global demand [4] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand showed a mixed trend, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for over half of the economy, only slightly increasing by 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.4% in the previous quarter [6] - Persistently high food prices continue to suppress household consumption willingness [6] - Business equipment investment grew by 1.0%, outperforming market expectations and standing out as a bright spot in otherwise bleak data [6] - Residential investment saw a significant decline due to stricter environmental standards for new housing [6] - The GDP deflator index rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in Japan [6] Economic Policy Response - In response to economic downward pressure, Japan is expected to implement an economic stimulus plan exceeding 17 trillion yen this week [9] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates at 0.5% last month, with market expectations leaning towards avoiding interest rate hikes in December due to the potential economic contraction in the third quarter [9] - Current economic conditions are testing policymakers' ability to balance supporting economic growth while controlling inflation [9]