OppFi's Adjusted EPS Guidance for 2025 Raised Again: Can it Deliver?

Core Insights - OppFi (OPFI) raised its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance for 2025 to $1.54-$1.60, up from $1.39-$1.44, following a strong quarterly performance with an adjusted EPS of 46 cents, reflecting a 39.1% year-over-year increase [2][8] Financial Performance - The company experienced a 13.5% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by the predictive capabilities of Model 6, which improved loan management and boosted originations and receivables [3][8] - Adjusted net income rose by 41.4% compared to the same quarter last year, supported by effective expense management [3] Credit Risk Management - OPFI achieved a significant reduction in credit risk, with net charge-offs declining by 430 basis points or 11.2% year-over-year as a percentage of total revenues [4] - The company's future performance hinges on its ability to scale sustainably while leveraging its credit risk mitigation technology [4][5] Future Outlook - The management plans to roll out Model 6.1 in Q4 2025, aimed at enhancing risk detection and increasing volume growth [5] - The absence of major macroeconomic challenges is expected to facilitate the achievement of the new EPS guidance [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - OPFI's stock has increased by 28.4% year-to-date, outperforming competitors like Corpay (CPAY) and Global Payments (GPN), which have seen declines of 17.5% and 33.2%, respectively [6][8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.82, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.13 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OppFi's earnings for 2025 has increased by 10.6% over the past 30 days [12]