未来五年投资主线生变？有色板块强势崛起，四大支撑逻辑浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - The traditional sector of non-ferrous metals is experiencing a remarkable surge, challenging the dominance of technology stocks, with a cumulative increase of 52.84% in the Shenwan non-ferrous metals industry index as of September 2025, surpassing the long-standing leader, the communications sector [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global economic initiatives like "new infrastructure" and "energy transition" are driving significant demand for non-ferrous metals, with projections indicating a sixfold increase in demand for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel by 2040 compared to 2020 levels [3] - The supply side faces constraints due to long mining cycles, with new copper or lithium mines taking 5 to 10 years to develop, and low capital expenditure from major mining companies limiting future supply [5] - Environmental regulations are tightening globally, with countries like China and Indonesia implementing stricter mining policies, further constraining supply [5] Macroeconomic Support - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in 2025 is expected to weaken the dollar, making non-ferrous metals cheaper for global buyers and stimulating demand [7] - Non-ferrous metals are viewed as "anti-inflation assets," enhancing their appeal amid ongoing inflationary pressures [7] Valuation and Performance - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector is around 15-20 times, compared to 30-40 times for technology stocks, indicating a higher potential return on investment with lower risk [10] - Non-ferrous metal companies have shown strong performance, with many reporting impressive earnings growth that outpaces their stock price increases, leading to improved return on equity (ROE) and cash flow [10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on "new energy metals" such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, aluminum, and rare earths, which have the highest demand growth certainty [12] - Preference should be given to companies with high resource self-sufficiency, as they are better positioned to benefit from rising metal prices and have stronger cost control [13] - Long-term holding strategies are recommended, with a diversified approach through industry index funds like the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF and Non-Ferrous ETF Fund to mitigate risks [13] Structural Opportunities - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, there are structural opportunities, particularly in precious metals like gold, which benefit from the Fed's rate cuts and geopolitical risks [15] - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are directly benefiting from expanding supply-demand gaps, while smaller metals like antimony and cobalt may present investment opportunities due to supply disruptions and specific demand factors [15]