比特币失守9.5万美元！10万人爆仓，巨鲸+ETF集体出逃，牛市泡沫已经破裂？

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has officially entered a technical bear market following a significant price drop, with a decline of over 25% from its historical high in October 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1][8]. Market Performance - On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,778.6, marking a drop of over 5% from the previous day and the first time it fell below the $95,000 psychological level since October 10 [3]. - The overall cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline, with Ethereum dropping below $3,200 and a monthly decline of 20% [3]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated by over $1 trillion within 24 hours, reflecting significant losses since the October peak [4]. Liquidation and Trading Dynamics - Nearly 100,000 investors faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts reaching approximately $2.51 billion [5][6]. - Long positions accounted for over 70% of the liquidations, indicating a significant market shift [6]. Macroeconomic Context - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to a shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations, with the market's optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut dissipating [8]. - Strong employment data and consumer spending in the U.S. have led to a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts, causing investors to withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin [8]. Institutional and Whale Activity - Institutional investors and long-term holders have shifted from buying to selling, leading to a sharp decline in market buying power [10]. - Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen a net outflow of $311.3 million in the week ending November 16, marking the longest streak of outflows since March [11]. - Long-term holders sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, the highest level of selling activity since early 2024 [12]. Market Sentiment and Narrative Shift - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge has been challenged, as it has not performed as a safe haven during market volatility [18]. - The anticipated "halving" event, which typically boosts prices, has not provided the expected support, leading to profit-taking by investors [18]. - Recent events, including the U.S. Department of Justice's seizure of 127,000 Bitcoins, have undermined the perception of security in cryptocurrency transactions [19].