特朗普妥协了，取消对等关税降低成本，美联储降息概率跌破50%

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by Trump to exempt tariffs on over 200 agricultural products, including coffee and beef, is a response to significant price increases that have pressured the White House, with coffee prices rising nearly 20% and beef prices up 14.7% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - Trump's executive order exempts tariffs on various agricultural products, including coffee, tea, beef, and tropical fruits, effective retroactively [1]. - The exemption is politically motivated to alleviate pressure on consumer prices while maintaining leverage in negotiations with specific countries [3]. - The agricultural trade deficit is projected to reach $39.4 billion, with coffee imports alone accounting for one-third of this figure [3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The tariff policy has significantly affected American households, with grocery costs becoming a primary source of stress for half of the population [4]. - Even higher-income families are feeling the pinch, leading them to shop at discount stores and cut back on expenses [4][6]. - A report indicates that consumers currently bear only 22% of the tariff costs, which is expected to rise to 67% by October as costs transition from importers to consumers [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation remaining too high [7]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped below 50%, contrasting sharply with nearly 95% a month prior [7]. - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty in economic data, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [9]. Group 4: Labor Market and AI Influence - The labor market is showing signs of downward pressure, with rising layoff announcements and increased discussions about layoffs in various sectors due to AI adoption [9]. - The interplay between Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policies is becoming increasingly evident, with potential implications for short-term interest rate strategies [9].