Stifel's Stephen Gengaro shares his bull case for Tesla

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock is performing well, increasing by as much as 4.8% and closing 1% higher, despite a broader tech selloff. Stifel has raised its price target from $483 to $508, indicating a potential 24% upside from the current price, driven by advancements in full self-driving (FSD) and robo-taxi technology [1]. Valuation Insights - The valuation analysis indicates that approximately $130 of the valuation is linked to the core auto business, while FSD and robo-taxi contribute about $185 and $160, respectively, to the overall valuation [3]. - The optimistic valuation for the Optimus robot is only around $29 to $30 per share, reflecting a conservative approach, with the primary value derived from FSD and robo-taxi [5]. FSD and Robo-Taxi Developments - Incremental data points regarding the success of FSD are expected to drive the robo-taxi business, which is seen as a key growth area [3]. - Current projections suggest that by 2026 and 2027, only about 15% to 20% of Tesla buyers may subscribe to FSD, with higher adoption rates anticipated in later years as consumer exposure increases [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding competitive threats to FSD, particularly as Tesla employs a camera-based system and AI, while competitors are utilizing LIDAR systems, which may pose risks to Tesla's market position [8].