金金乐道·把握市场脉搏∣美债利率中期下行确定性强，港股黄金短期扰动不改长期乐观

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while short-term disturbances may affect market sentiment, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, particularly for gold and Hong Kong stocks, as the U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline in the medium term [1][30][19] - The U.S. stock market is experiencing increased volatility due to mixed narratives surrounding AI valuations and uncertain interest rate cuts, with the S&P 500 remaining relatively flat while the Nasdaq has faced declines [2][3][4] - India's stock market has rebounded strongly, driven by a significant drop in CPI to 0.25%, which has heightened expectations for future interest rate cuts, alongside political stability following recent elections [6][7] Group 2 - Japan's stock market is maintaining a volatile stance, influenced by weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with the Bank of Japan's policies remaining accommodative despite market uncertainties [10][12] - The A-share market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the performance of financial and consumer sectors, while the tech sector is under pressure from overseas market volatility [13][26] - The gold market has shown a pattern of rising and then falling prices, reflecting fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with a long-term optimistic outlook due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing [30][31] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury market is facing a mixed outlook, with yields fluctuating amid government shutdown concerns and economic data uncertainty, while the medium-term trend suggests a downward trajectory for yields [20][21] - The domestic bond market is experiencing stability despite mixed economic data, with inflation figures exceeding expectations, indicating a supportive environment for bonds [26][27] - The oil market is characterized by a tug-of-war between oversupply and geopolitical risks, leading to a narrow trading range, with demand weakness becoming a dominant factor [34][35]