广发策略&地产 | 如何看待香港楼市回暖？——港股市场策略展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent recovery in the Hong Kong property market is driven by improved funding conditions and stronger economic expectations, which will enhance capital market sentiment and create a positive feedback loop between the stock and property markets [2][4][10] - The rental yield in Hong Kong (3.6%) exceeds the mortgage rate (3.22%), contrasting with mainland China's first-tier cities where rental yields are below 2% [3][6] - Historical trends indicate that property market recoveries do not lead to a diversion of funds from the stock market; instead, they often coincide with improved liquidity and economic conditions, supporting stock market valuations [15][16][17] Group 2 - The Hong Kong property market has shown signs of recovery, with transaction volumes increasing significantly in recent months, supported by favorable government policies and a declining interest rate environment [24][32][36] - The average rental yield in Hong Kong has risen above 3.5%, making property investments more attractive, while the recent decline in mortgage rates has eased the financial burden on homebuyers [32][39] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the recovery in the property sector, as increased wealth effects and risk appetite may lead to a positive cycle between the two asset classes [10][15][36]