外汇商品 | 加美货币政策周期的协调与分化

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy of Canada is significantly influenced by external financial conditions and trade cycles, particularly those of the United States, leading to a historical pattern of synchronization and occasional divergence in policy rates between the two countries [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Cycle Divergence Drivers - The divergence in monetary policy between Canada and the U.S. can be categorized into two main drivers: changes in global demand for Canadian goods, particularly influenced by commodity prices, and fluctuations in global demand for the U.S. dollar, which can lead to capital flight and affect exchange rates [4][5][6]. 2. Current Policy Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - Currently, both Canada and the U.S. are in a new round of interest rate cuts, with macroeconomic challenges being highly similar. However, Canada has shown a tendency towards more aggressive easing due to weaker economic performance and housing market pressures [24][25]. - The Bank of Canada (BoC) initiated its rate cuts in June 2024, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, reflecting its assessment of domestic economic conditions and inflation trends [25][26]. - The BoC's policy adjustments are expected to remain closely aligned with the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly in response to external pressures such as exchange rate fluctuations and commodity price movements [29][30]. 3. Historical Context of Policy Coordination - Historical analysis shows that Canada and the U.S. have experienced periods of both high coordination and significant divergence in monetary policy, influenced by various economic conditions and external shocks [16][18][19]. - The coordination phases have typically seen Canada adjusting its policy rates in a manner that is consistent with U.S. movements, albeit often with smaller adjustments [18][19]. 4. Future Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, the BoC's capacity for further rate cuts may be limited, as current rates are near the lower bound of the neutral range. The bank's decisions will likely be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [29][30][31].