Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-18 00:29Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese stock market is expected to progress amidst the AI technology wave, with gold also becoming a notable asset. The continuation of the upward momentum for both the Chinese stock market and gold into 2026 is under scrutiny, alongside asset allocation strategies for US stocks and Chinese bonds [4]. Group 1: Chinese Stock Market Analysis - Compared to US stocks, the Chinese stock market experiences more frequent cycles of upward and downward movements, making the identification of market tops more critical [4]. - CICC identifies five dimensions—economy, policy, macro liquidity, earnings, and valuation levels—to summarize the top patterns of Chinese stocks, finding that economic and policy signals are more accurate, while liquidity, earnings, and valuation signals have limited guiding effects [4]. - Currently, the Chinese economy is in a recovery phase with low inflation and stable growth, indicating no immediate necessity for policy tightening. However, there are concerns about potential declines in macro liquidity [4]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold's market top prediction is considered less challenging than that of stocks, with the Federal Reserve's policies being a key factor. The correlation between gold's top turning points and policy expectations enhances prediction accuracy [5]. - The outlook for 2026 hinges on four major factors: economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks. These factors are not expected to significantly alter the steady upward trend of Chinese stocks and gold in the short term [5][6]. - CICC recommends an asset allocation strategy for the first half of 2026 that favors Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining standard allocations for US stocks and bonds, and reducing exposure to Chinese bonds [7]. Group 3: Long-term Trends and Predictions - The macro liquidity environment is anticipated to remain generally loose, providing favorable conditions for the market. The AI industry trend is also expected to support the A-share market [7]. - Gold is positioned as a superior asset under the resonance of US and Chinese liquidity, with long-term structural factors supporting an increase in gold's valuation center [7]. - The current gold market trend is still below the significant upswings seen in the 1970s and 2000s, suggesting a potential for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce if the current trend continues [7].