黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.11.18）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a downward trend on November 17, with prices fluctuating and ultimately closing lower, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Economic data releases are limited, with a focus on speeches from Federal Reserve officials and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from over 60% to 39%-41%, contributing to a rebound in the US dollar index by 0.25% to 99.54, which has pressured gold buying [4]. - Delayed economic data releases this week, particularly the September non-farm payroll report, are expected to increase market uncertainty [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weak downward trend, forming a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [3]. - The current daily moving average system is disorganized, with no clear bullish or bearish arrangement, leading to ineffective support and resistance levels [3]. - On the four-hour chart, gold has been in a downward trend, breaking below the key support level of 4032, with the price reaching a low of approximately 4007 [6]. - The decline from the high of 4245 has formed a complete five-wave structure, with the current price action likely in the first wave of a C-wave decline [6]. - Key support levels to monitor include 4007, 3980, and 3963, with 3980 corresponding to the weekly MA10 and 3963 being a significant Fibonacci retracement level [6]. Market Events - Upcoming economic data releases include the Australian Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, US import price index, industrial production, and NAHB housing market index [8].