政策东风催化光伏行业拐点，如何把握“三重底”投资窗口？

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point in the second half of 2025 after over two years of deep adjustments, driven by national policies aimed at curbing "involution" competition and promoting orderly development [1][2][3] - The industry is showing signs of reversing its previous difficulties, with prices along the supply chain rebounding, improved profitability for companies, and a strong recovery in secondary market indices [1][5] - The current phase presents a rare historical investment opportunity characterized by a triple bottom in profitability, holdings, and valuation within the photovoltaic sector [1][4] Industry Overview - Since 2020, the domestic photovoltaic industry has rapidly expanded, establishing a leading global position, with cumulative installed capacity exceeding 400 GW by the end of 2023, accounting for over one-third of the global market share [2] - The industry faced severe challenges, including overcapacity leading to price drops and international trade barriers, resulting in a significant price war that compressed overall industry profits [2][3] Policy Developments - The Chinese government has actively intervened since last year to address the chaotic competition in the photovoltaic sector, with multiple policy signals aimed at promoting orderly development and preventing "involution" [2][3] - Key policy measures include the establishment of a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to acquire outdated polysilicon capacity, which is expected to help the industry return to a reasonable capacity range [3] Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector has begun to recover, with significant price rebounds observed in polysilicon and photovoltaic components, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][5] - As of November 17, 2025, the China Photovoltaic Industry Index has increased by 36.94% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.88% [5] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the photovoltaic industry's overall revenue fell to 12,473.23 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 20.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.83% and 20.59% respectively [5][6] - By the third quarter of 2025, the photovoltaic sector's revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 1495%, indicating a significant recovery [6] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a unique opportunity for investment, with the photovoltaic sector at a cyclical low in profitability, institutional holdings, and valuation [6] - The launch of the Huaxia Photovoltaic ETF (515370) on November 18 provides investors with a convenient tool to gain exposure to leading companies across the entire photovoltaic supply chain [1][7]