“反内卷”对玻璃行业的影响分析

Group 1: Industry Overview - The float glass industry has faced severe challenges since 2021, including weakened demand, high inventory levels, and continuous price pressure due to the adjustment cycle in the real estate market [1][15] - The industry is expected to accelerate capacity clearance and transformation by 2025-2026, moving away from its reliance on the real estate sector [1][15] Group 2: Supply-Side Structural Reform - Supply-side structural reform was first proposed in November 2015, focusing on reducing excess capacity, improving total factor productivity, lowering enterprise costs, and preventing financial risks [2] - Significant progress has been made in eliminating excess capacity in key industries, including steel, cement, and flat glass, with 300 million tons, 400 million tons, and 150 million weight boxes of capacity eliminated respectively by the end of 2022 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market has shown significant policy-driven improvements, with a notable increase in new housing starts and sales from 2015 to 2016, but has since entered a downward trend [4][5] - By 2024, new housing starts are projected to drop to 7.39 million square meters, a 67% decline from peak levels in 2019-2020 [13][14] Group 4: Float Glass Demand and Supply Dynamics - The float glass industry is heavily dependent on the real estate sector, with 80% of its demand linked to construction activities [11] - The industry has experienced a significant drop in demand, with housing completion areas expected to decrease by 26.13% in 2024 [15] - Current inventory levels in the float glass sector are at historical highs, with total inventory reaching 63.14 million weight boxes, a 29.05% increase year-on-year [18] Group 5: Financial Performance and Profitability - The float glass industry has been in a prolonged state of loss, with average weekly profits for natural gas-based production lines at -172.70 yuan/ton [20] - The profitability of the industry is being affected by fluctuating raw material costs, with some production lines still maintaining profits due to lower costs of coal-based gas [20][21] Group 6: Future Outlook - The float glass industry is expected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on reducing reliance on the real estate sector and enhancing operational efficiency [15][21] - The ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies are likely to further influence the industry's dynamics and competitive landscape [12][21]