铁矿石 走势不容乐观

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the iron ore futures market is facing a challenging outlook due to supply increases, weakening demand, and rising policy expectations, leading to a pessimistic mid-term price trend [1] Group 2 - The supply side has shifted from expectation to reality, with major mining companies signaling expansion in their third-quarter reports. BHP's West Pilbara project has increased capacity utilization to 110%, with daily shipments stabilizing at 1.8 million tons. Rio Tinto's Cape Lambert port expansion has raised its fourth-quarter shipment target by 5%. Vale's Capanema project has achieved 15 million tons of new capacity as of October. Notably, the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has commenced production, with an annual capacity exceeding 30 million tons and an expected increase of 80 million tons by 2026 [2] - Shipment and inventory data further confirm a relaxed supply situation, with average daily shipments from Australia and Brazil reaching 3.12 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Domestic northern ports have seen continuous arrivals exceeding 24 million tons for four weeks, with total iron ore inventory at major ports rising to 158 million tons, a historical high for the same period. The inventory structure shows a decrease in daily port throughput from 3.2 million tons to 2.95 million tons, indicating weakened proactive replenishment demand, which may extend the accumulation cycle into the first quarter of next year [2] Group 3 - Steel mills are experiencing rapid declines in profitability, which is a core factor constraining iron ore demand. Current data shows that the profitability of blast furnaces has dropped to 39%. This suggests that the market should reconsider the traditional view of "steel mill production inertia," as the marginal reduction in steel production can significantly impact the iron ore supply-demand balance. There are differing interpretations regarding the reduction in pig iron production, with some believing it will help reduce steel inventory and support steel prices. However, from the perspective of iron ore fundamentals, the previous high valuation was primarily due to steel mills benefiting upstream through replenishment. With both steel mill profits and production declining, iron ore is likely to experience a negative feedback loop, gradually giving back previous excessive gains [3] - Additionally, weak real estate data continues to affect demand for construction steel. Data from the Steel Association indicates that national steel social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with finished product inventory at steel mills rising to 14.5 million tons, further suppressing the willingness to procure iron ore [3] Group 4 - In the short term, the market is expected to operate within a range, with three core factors to monitor: the effectiveness of the support at 760 yuan/ton, which corresponds to previous lows and steel mill procurement cost lines; the central economic work conference at the end of November, which may release strong stimulus signals for real estate and infrastructure, potentially pushing prices to challenge resistance levels of 790-800 yuan/ton; and the shipment data from Australia and Brazil in early December, which, if it continues to show high growth, will reinforce long-term bearish logic [4]