比特币跌破92000美元，一年的涨幅跌没了

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of over 2%, erasing its year-to-date gains of 30%, with multiple cryptocurrencies following suit [1][3]. Market Performance - As of November 18, Bitcoin was priced at $91,935.6, while Ethereum was at $3,036.41, reflecting a 3% decline for Bitcoin and a 2.52% decline for Ethereum over the past 24 hours [4][3]. - In the last 24 hours, over 15,000 traders faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, with total liquidations amounting to approximately $530 million [1][2]. Macro Factors - The decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by changes in liquidity expectations at the macro level, particularly following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 44.4%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [5][7]. Institutional Behavior - There has been a noticeable outflow of institutional funds from the cryptocurrency market, with some Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows, indicating a weakening interest from institutions [5]. - Despite the market downturn, some institutions, such as Strategy, have increased their Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 397 Bitcoins for approximately $45.6 million [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if Bitcoin prices remain below $100,000, a more severe sell-off could occur, with a potential target near $74,000, indicating about a 30% downside from current levels [7]. - Fundstrat's Tom Lee maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, despite recent market volatility [8].