Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-18 01:46Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][2][3] Performance Analysis - Revenue: In Q3, the company sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter increase. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Costs: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Profit: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. After excluding abnormal exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, increasing by 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, up 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [1][2] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, with new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 performing above median levels, contributing to ASP growth. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the introduction of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. The company maintained stable expense ratios, which decreased quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the overall strong performance [2] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a trend of increasing volume, price, and profit, with the company solidifying its position as a market leader. New models such as Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 are expected to enhance model structure and further improve unit profitability. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [2] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain an upward trend in fundamentals, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The focus should be on the recovery of market recognition. With low costs, strong blockbuster models, and a vigorous new vehicle cycle, the company is viewed positively for continued growth in volume, price, and profit. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remain unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [3]