BD密集催化+商保落地，科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）逆势领涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector has adjusted its valuations to a more reasonable range, and as the fourth quarter approaches, there is a resurgence in business development (BD) transactions, particularly following the ESMO conference [1][3]. - The China innovative drug overseas authorization amount is projected to reach $60.8 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in the sector's international expansion [3]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs is expected to create a new payment channel, potentially adding around 20 billion yuan to the payment scale for innovative drugs [6]. Group 2 - The A-share pharmaceutical industry is showing signs of recovery, with the innovative drug sector's revenue reaching 48.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.41% [8]. - The number of approved domestic original drugs has been increasing, allowing innovative drugs to capture market share rapidly, with China's biopharmaceutical market now ranking second globally [8]. - The ETF focused on innovative drugs, specifically the Guotai ETF (589720), has shown a significant rebound, with a more than 1.5% increase recently, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [2][9].