存储芯片价格上涨，低端手机市场可能面临做多亏多局面

Core Viewpoint - The global memory chip industry has experienced a significant price surge since the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, with DDR5 memory prices doubling within a month, impacting smartphone manufacturers' procurement strategies [1][3]. Price Surge and Impact - DDR5 16Gb memory prices rose from $7.68 to $15.5 in one month, marking a 102% increase, while DDR4 16Gb saw a price increase of over 92% [1]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have paused quotes due to rapid price increases, leading to smartphone companies delaying storage chip purchases [1][2]. - The fourth quarter DRAM contract prices increased by 75% year-on-year, with low-power DRAM prices rising by 40% and UFS prices by 25% to 30% [3][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for memory chips is driven by AI, with AI servers requiring significantly more DRAM and NAND than traditional servers, leading to a structural shift in production focus towards higher-margin products [3][4]. - Smartphone manufacturers are facing supply shortages, with many having inventory levels below two months, and some DRAM stocks dropping to three weeks [1][3]. Manufacturer Strategies - Smartphone manufacturers are adjusting their strategies by slightly increasing prices and reducing memory configurations to manage costs, such as downgrading RAM from 16GB to 12GB [5]. - The low-end smartphone market is expected to face more significant challenges, with potential production bottlenecks and increased pressure on hardware profit margins [6]. Financial Performance - Transsion Holdings reported a revenue of 49.543 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decline of 3.3%, with net profit dropping by 44.97% due to competitive pressures and supply chain costs [7]. - The company is actively responding to rising storage chip prices through price adjustments and product structure changes [7]. Future Outlook - TrendForce has revised its forecast for global smartphone production in 2026 from a 0.1% increase to a 2% decrease, indicating potential further downward adjustments if supply-demand imbalances worsen [7]. - Predictions suggest that while price increases may moderate in the first half of next year, the smartphone industry will continue to face high-pressure conditions for at least a couple more quarters [8].