鹏华基金·科创股债ETF大厂|省心科技投资,双“创”组合动量轮动

Core Insights - The technology sector has been the most prominent market theme this year, with rapid rotations among sub-sectors like AI computing, semiconductors, and new energy, making it challenging for ordinary investors to navigate [1] - Broad-based index funds are emerging as a better solution for ordinary investors to participate in the technology wave, offering industry-balanced allocation that diversifies individual stock risks while capturing industry trend dividends [1] Group 1: Index Characteristics - The ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices are highlighted as the "twin stars" of technology investment, with distinct compositions and risk profiles that complement each other [1][4] - The ChiNext 50 index represents "mature technology anchors," featuring leading companies in new energy, communications, and electronics, which have established strong competitive advantages and exhibit stable earnings [4] - In contrast, the Sci-Tech 100 index focuses on "hard technology pioneers," concentrating on sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, characterized by higher growth potential and volatility [4][6] Group 2: Momentum Rotation Strategy - A momentum rotation strategy is proposed, leveraging the strong performance of the ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices, which exhibit a "stronger gets stronger" effect typical in the technology sector [7] - Entry signals for the strategy are defined as a cumulative increase of 8% or more over the past 20 trading days for either index, with a preference for the index showing stronger momentum [7] - The strategy includes ongoing monitoring of the holding index's momentum, with a switch to the stronger index if the other surpasses it by 3 percentage points [7][8] Group 3: Strategy Performance - Historical backtesting from November 14, 2020, to November 14, 2025, shows that the momentum rotation strategy achieved a total return of 96.36%, significantly outperforming the ChiNext 50's 31.84% and the Sci-Tech 100's -0.78% [10] - The strategy also demonstrated effective risk control, with a maximum drawdown of -25.46%, compared to -63.72% for the Sci-Tech 100 index, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 0.59, well above the benchmark's 0.21 [10] - The strategy successfully kept pace with market trends during bullish phases and avoided significant losses during market downturns by maintaining cash positions when both indices fell below the entry threshold [10]